Last reviewed: October 2, 2026. Reading time: about 10 minutes.
The honest answer is: it depends entirely on what your business actually paid, and nobody outside CBP can tell you an exact figure before your entries are processed. What this guide can do is show you the real formula CBP uses, where to find your own numbers, and what tends to add to or subtract from the final amount, so you can build a genuine estimate instead of guessing.
If a number sounds suspiciously precise or guaranteed before anyone has looked at your entries, that is worth treating with caution. We cover why in our guide to tariff refund scams.
The short version: your refund is approximately the IEEPA duties you actually paid on eligible entries, plus statutory interest from the date you paid until the date CBP refunds it, minus any outstanding balance CBP nets out first. There is no flat amount, no percentage of your total import value, and no number that applies to every business.
Transparency note: this guide is educational. At the end, we link to a referral partner and may earn a commission if you apply through that link. Read our affiliate disclosure and disclaimer.
In this guide
The actual formula
CBP's CAPE system does not estimate or negotiate a refund. It recalculates each entry as if the IEEPA duty had never been applied, then pays the difference, plus interest. The formula is mechanical, not a judgment call:
+ statutory interest from payment to refund
− any outstanding CBP balance
There is no multiplier, no flat per-shipment amount, and no percentage of your total revenue or import value. The only number that matters is the IEEPA duty line itself, the specific amount CBP charged under the Chapter 99 provision on each entry.
Where to find your own numbers
Your real figure already exists in your own records. You do not need to guess it.
- Ask your customs broker for a summary of IEEPA duties paid across your entries. This is usually the fastest route.
- Pull an ES-003 report (Entry Summary Line Tariff Details) in the ACE Portal if you have access. It is built specifically to show entries with an IEEPA tariff indicator, separating principal duty from any interest.
- Review your own entry summaries (CBP Form 7501) for the HTS Chapter 99 line corresponding to IEEPA duties, rather than your total duties paid, which may include unrelated tariffs.
How interest is calculated
CBP has confirmed that CAPE refunds include applicable interest, calculated under 19 CFR 24.36, the same framework used for other CBP refunds. The rate differs depending on who is being refunded:
Interest accrues from the date you paid the duty until the date CBP issues the refund, so entries paid earlier in the IEEPA period, and refunds that take longer to process, accumulate more interest. This is one of the only parts of the calculation that rewards waiting, though it does not offset the risk of a deadline closing. See our deadline guide for those windows.
Three illustrative examples
These are hypothetical scenarios to show how the math works, not real cases, averages, or promises. Your actual numbers depend entirely on your own entries.
| IEEPA duties paid across 2025 entries | $18,400 |
| Estimated interest (about 10 months) | $1,100 |
| Illustrative total | ≈ $19,500 |
A business that paid IEEPA duties on a modest volume of shipments, with entries that liquidated and were claimed relatively promptly.
| IEEPA duties paid across 2025-2026 entries | $142,000 |
| Estimated interest (varied dates) | $9,300 |
| Illustrative total | ≈ $151,300 |
A business with entries spread across more months, where some duties were paid earlier and accrued more interest than others.
| IEEPA duties paid, eligible entries only | $61,000 |
| Estimated interest | $3,800 |
| Duties on entries outside CAPE's current scope | Not included |
| Illustrative total (eligible portion only) | ≈ $64,800 |
A business where some entries are finally liquidated and outside CAPE Phase 1's current scope. Only the eligible portion is reflected here; the rest depends on the separate protest and litigation pathways covered in our deadline guide.
What can reduce your final amount
Things that lower the number
- Outstanding CBP balances. CBP offsets any bills you owe before issuing the refund.
- Excluded entries. Entries tied to drawback, USMCA duty deferral, antidumping or countervailing duty cases pending liquidation, or surety-paid duties are not processed through CAPE, so their IEEPA amounts are not reflected in a CAPE-based figure.
- Partial eligibility. If some entries are finally liquidated and outside the current CAPE scope, only the eligible portion shows up in a near-term refund.
- Errors in your own filing. Missing or incorrect entry numbers mean those specific amounts simply are not claimed, covered in our mistakes guide.
Build your own estimate
- Pull your IEEPA duty total. Ask your broker, or use an ES-003 report, to find the actual Chapter 99 IEEPA duty amount across your entries, not your total duties paid.
- Sort by payment date. Group entries by roughly when the duty was paid, since this affects how much interest has accrued on each.
- Apply a rough interest estimate. For a ballpark figure, apply about 6 to 7% annually for the time between payment and today, understanding the real number depends on CBP's exact calculation and your actual refund date.
- Subtract anything you know is excluded. Remove duties tied to drawback, USMCA deferral, surety-paid entries, or entries you know are finally liquidated and outside current CAPE scope.
- Treat the result as a working estimate. Use it for planning purposes, not as a number to rely on for cash flow commitments until CBP actually processes your claim.
No one can tell you an exact number before CBP processes your entries. Be especially cautious of anyone, including a referral service, who quotes you a specific dollar figure before reviewing your actual entry data. A legitimate estimate is a range built from your own numbers, not a promise.
Frequently asked questions
No. Your refund is based on the actual IEEPA duties your business paid on eligible entries, not a percentage of your revenue or total import value.
Yes. CBP has confirmed that CAPE refunds include applicable interest under 19 CFR 24.36, commonly cited at around 6% for corporations and 7% for individuals, calculated from the date you paid to the date CBP refunds it.
Ask your customs broker, or pull an ES-003 Entry Summary Line Tariff Details report in the ACE Portal if you have access. Look specifically for the IEEPA Chapter 99 duty line, not your total duties.
Yes. CBP nets out any outstanding balance you owe before issuing the refund, and entries excluded from CAPE, such as drawback or surety-paid entries, are not included in a CAPE-based figure.
Refund size depends on each business's actual duties paid, how many entries are eligible under current CAPE rules, and how much interest has accrued, so even similar-sized businesses can see very different totals.
Be cautious. A legitimate estimate can only be built from your actual entry data. A specific number offered before anyone has reviewed your records is a red flag covered in our scams guide.
Get a real number, not a guess
The most accurate way to know your actual refund potential is to have your entries reviewed directly. Tariff Refund Agency offers a free eligibility check that takes about five minutes, with no commitment.
Start Your Free Eligibility Check
Affiliate disclosure: if you apply through this button, we may earn a commission from Tariff Refund Agency. Refund eligibility, amounts and timing depend on individual circumstances and are never guaranteed. Read our affiliate disclosure and disclaimer.
Sources and further reading
- Tariff Refunds Finder: IEEPA Tariff Refund: Are You Owed Money by CBP?
- Tariff Refunds Finder: Tariff Refund Eligibility Checklist for US Importers (2026)
- Tariff Refunds Finder: Tariff Refund Scams, 7 Red Flags Importers Should Watch For
- Tariff Refunds Finder: IEEPA Refund Deadline, Can Importers Still Claim in 2026?
- CBP: IEEPA Duty Refunds (official page)
- Ayar Law: How Is Your Tariff Refund Amount Calculated?
Educational only. Tariff Refunds Finder is not CBP, U.S. Customs or a government agency, and this guide is not legal, tax or financial advice. The examples above are illustrative only. Refund amounts depend entirely on individual circumstances and are never guaranteed.
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